Heading into OPEC’s Nov. 30 Vienna meeting, spreadsheets and slide rulers have comingled with gut feelings and deep suspicion, producing a collective hunch of what will come of the organization’s freeze meeting.

In short, probably something.

Andrew Fletcher, senior vice president of commodity derivatives for KeyBank National Association, views a deal as likely.

“Their reputation as a viable organization is on the line,” Fletcher told Hart Energy.

Or, as Vikas Dwivedi, analyst at Macquarie Research put it, should OPEC fail to reach an agreement, “they will be The Boy Who Cried Wolf, [ridiculed first baseman] Bill Buckner and the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight all rolled into one. Additionally, OPEC would lose jawboning power immediately and be on its way to dissolution while members are locked in a crude production arms race.”

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